Comprehensive analysis and forecast of Chinese NEV : Industry development from 2012 to 2025

Chen Rurong and Cai Jing and Fu Yingjie and Wei Ziji (2023) Comprehensive analysis and forecast of Chinese NEV : Industry development from 2012 to 2025. In: Foresight in research - case studies on future issues and methods. Budapest Business School, Budapest, pp. 105-128. ISBN 9786156342560

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Abstract

More and more countries are turning to renewable energy to reduce their dependence on traditional fossil fuels as climate change increases. Electric cars have also become a new trend in energy transformation that is strongly supported by many governments. To answer the research questions, we employ a literature review approach and the TOPSIS method based on entropy. This paper begins with a systematic review of the relevant literature to identify key characteristics of the Chinese market for new energy vehicles (NEVs), providing clear theoretical support. Then, the author chose data from 2012 through 2022 as the primary research object for analysis and chose a total of five first-level indicators and fifteen second-level indicators as the main observation indicators. Using the TOPSIS method, the authors evaluate the entire NEV market in China and make predictions for three years into the future. Based on the results, the NEV composite score ranking is continuing to increase, which indicates a very promising future. However, when a black swan event occurs, such as a car safety incident, it can seriously impede its development. One of the most significant contributions is that based on the evaluation scores from the indicators, the positive and negative future state of NEV is indicated. Since the data has not yet been updated to 2023, it is necessary to continue to verify the new data to make up for the lack of data.